Energy Insights, the data and analytics specialist for the global energy industry, part of McKinsey & Company, has released its Global Gas & LNG Outlook to 2035. The report finds that continuous demand growth, alongside new supply sources, will transform the gas market import and export balances by 2022.
This transformation will be driven by significant global gas demand growth of approximately 300 billion cubic metres by 2022, with Asia accounting for around 50% of that additional demand. Crucially, buyers in China will increasingly rely on LNG imports as domestic supply growth and incremental pipeline inflows are expected to be insufficient to meet rapidly growing policy-led demand. On the supply side, declining production in Europe and increasing North American supply will impact market dynamics.
Dumitru Dediu, Associate Partner with Energy Insights says, “Changes to the domestic supply and demand balance of different countries will impact their international gas trade exposure through to 2022. The market is moving rapidly, and new import and export players are emerging to meet buyers needs for flexibility and increasing market liquidity.
“China will continue to play a key role in gas market dynamics. As its demand growth continues at pace, China is expected to meet this by pulling on all three delivery mechanisms: increased domestic production, expanded pipeline imports, and additional LNG imports. This demand change can have significant consequences on the market meaning stakeholders in this space need to keep a close eye on market shifts.”
Overall, Energy Insights expects gas market growth at 1% per annum until 2035 in its reference scenario. In addition, at three to four percent growth per year long-term, LNG will continue to outpace piped gas growth. With more LNG capacity coming onstream in the Atlantic basin and demand driven by the Pacific basin, the need for LNG cargoes passing the Panama Canal may increase from one cargo per day to three to four cargoes over the medium-long-term.
In terms of global gas price economics, new LNG projects from the US set the bar for projects worldwide. They also provide LNG buyers with an investment alternative to secure long-term supply at competitive prices, especially in a higher oil price environment.
Updated twice yearly, the Global Gas & LNG Outlook to 2035 offers businesses access to vital insights into the 2018 gas and LNG market, the mid-term outlook, and how gas demand and supply will evolve towards 2035.