On December 7, the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) presented the 2018 edition of its Global Gas Outlook 2040 in Vienna, Austria with support of the Ministry for Europe, Integration and Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Austria and with participation of Her Excellency Minister Dr Karin Kneissl, HE OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, HE IGU President Dr Joe M Kang, HE IEF Secretary General Dr Sun Xiansheng and the GECF Member Countries Ministers of Energy. The event was followed by a Gala Dinner in line with the 10th Anniversary of the Forum’s establishment in 2008.
In line with the widespread assessment of natural gas, which was confirmed recently in the G20 Meeting of the Energy Ministers’ Communiqué, the GECF advocates the importance of natural gas and promotes its great potential for the coming decades. This is due to the efficiency, availability, and environmentally friendly nature of the resource. The GECF’s activities are aimed amongst others at scientifically arguing the advantages of natural gas as a fuel of choice through presenting general public with a data-driven, in-depth analysis of gas industry dynamics.
The GGOis the only energy outlook worldwide that focuses solely on natural gas and it is the Forum’s flagship publication. Natural gas is projected to have a significant role in the transformations taking place in the global energy market in years to come and with the 19 GECF members together representing 70% of the world’s proven gas reserves, 45% of global gas production, 64% of pipeline gas exports and 54% of LNG trade, reliable projections are essential.
The publication represents an impartial view on gas market evolution by highlighting the most likely developments that are going to occur in the medium- and long-term, based on assumptions regarding macroeconomic conditions, energy prices, and current energy policies. This second edition of the publication is quantified using the GECF Global Gas Model – a unique and highly granular energy model developed at the GECF Secretariat – which includes various sub-models that each focus on one segment of the gas value chain.
Yesterday’s formal presentation of the Global Gas Outlook(GGO) was introduced by the opening remarks of HE Dr Sentyurin, Secretary General of the GECF and a welcome address by HE Minister Karin Kneissl, followed by a special guest speech by HE Mr Viktor Zubkov, Russia’s Special Presidential Representative for Cooperation with the GECF and the Chairman of the Board of Directors of Gazprom.
The presentation delivered by Viktor Sokolov highlighted that the geopolitical context could dictate policy recommendations related to natural gas, especially in the European market. It is important to promote energy policies that ensure natural gas penetration, and to engage in national and global policy debates in support of natural gas.
Some key take-away numbers from the presentation were that Natural gas demand in the global energy mix is expected to rise from 22% now to 26% by 2040 and that global natural gas demand is to increase by 46%, from 3709 bcm in 2017 to 5427 bcm in 2040. The power generation (2.2% p.a.) and industrial sectors (1.2% p.a.) are projected to be the biggest contributors to incremental demand. In terms of natural gas supply, an overall growth in production of 1.7% p.a. is expected to occur in the period leading up to 2040. As for GECF Countries, they will increase their production by one third, reaching approximately 2250 bcm by 2040.
Viktor Sokolov also reinforced that the GECF believes that countries should advocate for policy measures that promote gas through cooperation and appropriated dialogue between producers and consumers. They should also support investments in gas infrastructure and develop downstream operations in consuming markets to a larger extent – as policies that support the environmental advantages of natural gas and that advance gas-based technologies could be critical for long-term prospects.
The presentation of the GGOwas followed by a Gala Dinner and awards ceremony coinciding with the 10th Anniversary of the GECF’s inception in 2018.
During the Gala dinner’s opening remarks, HE Dr Sentyurin expressed the importance of natural gas as a clean and reliable energy source for sustainable development and its role in achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. He also highlighted the importance of collaboration to achieve this goal.
After welcoming remarks delivered by Ambassador Désirée Schweitzer, the evening continued with an award ceremony which honoured HE Dr. Sun Xiansheng, Secretary General of the International Energy Forum and Dr. Joe M Kang, President of the International Gas Union for their commitment and contributions to the natural gas industry. Both awardees thanked the GECF for the honor and friendship and Dr Kang underlined the importance of cooperation, a view fully shared by the GECF.