Renewable installed capacity in Ukraine is set to grow at 15.6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to reach 13.8 GW in 2030 from 2.8 GW in 2019. This increase in renewable energy capacity is expected to boost energy supply security in the country in the near future, says GlobalData, a data and analytics company.
Ukraine is reliant on nuclear and coal sources for the bulk of its power generation, and its nuclear reactors are totally dependent on foreign fuel. Over 50% of enriched fuel is imported from Russia, while the remaining is sourced from the US. In addition, ongoing military conflict in the coal-rich Donbas region has seriously hampered domestic coal production, resulting in increased coal import.
GlobalData’s latest report, “Ukraine Power Market Outlook to 2030, Update 2019 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape”, reveals that the increase in renewable capacity can be attributed to revised targets under National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP), favourable feed-in-tariffs and energy efficiency measures.
Arkapal Sil, Power Analyst at GlobalData, comments, “Ukraine’s onshore wind amounted to 591.2MW in 2018, and is expected to grow at 20% CAGR to reach 6.5 GW in 2030 from 855.6 MW in 2019. It will show the highest growth out of the country’s renewable power sources, followed by biopower and solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity, which are expected to grow at 16% and 13% CAGR, respectively, over the forecast period to reach 640 MW and 6.6 GW by 2030.”
The decrease in domestic coal production has resulted in Ukraine importing coal from South Africa, Poland and the US. Moreover, growing tensions with Russia can also jeopardise the nuclear fuel supply into Ukraine. In such a scenario, ramping up renewable capacity will go a long way in securing uninterrupted power generation in the long term.
Sil concludes, “Following the military conflict between Ukraine and Russia, the US has become a major supplier of coal and nuclear fuel for Ukraine. The country is expected to continue import of two major power sources until the end of the Ukrainian crisis in order to reduce imports from Russia and secure its energy supply.”