The Norwegian State’s net cash flow from the petroleum industry in 2020 is estimated to about NOK 245 billion.
The fields on the Norwegian continental shelf cover around 2% of the world’s oil demand and 3% of the world’s consumption of gas. The activity on the shelf today is high, which is necessary to maintain value creation, government revenues and employment over time.
New fields are expected to start in the next few years. The Sverdrup and Castberg fields in particular will contribute to an increase in total production, as the new fields more than compensate for natural decline in production in existing fields. In 2023, total production from the Norwegian Continental Shelf is expected to hit the record high levels from 2004.
“The petroleum sector is Norway’s biggest industry and the most important contributor to the financing of the welfare state. For the foreseeable future it will remain our largest industry in terms of revenue, value creation, investment and the number of jobs. This is due to a policy that stimulates new fields to bbe discovered, and resources that can replace existing, depleting fields,” says Minister of Petroleum and Energy, Kjell-Børge Freiberg.
The state’s net cash flow from the petroleum activities is estimated in the national budget at NOK 238 billion in 2019 and NOK 245 billion in 2020. The revenues include taxes, revenues from the state’s direct financial commitment (SDFI) and dividends from Equinor. In 2020, the estimated net cash flow from the shelf will increase the transfer to the oil fund equivalent to NOK 185,000 for a family of four.
The opportunities on the Norwegian continental shelf are still great. Of the total recoverable resources of 15.6 billion standard cubic metres of oil equivalent, only 47% were sold and delivered at the end of 2018.
“The activity level on the Norwegian continental shelf in terms of exploration, development and operation is at a high level. We expect it to remain so over the coming years. This is a high-tech industry. The fact that the oil companies continue to invest in exploration and further extraction of petroleum has positive learning and productivity effects, not only between supplier companies within the industry, but also between companies in the petroleum industry and other parts of the economy. It contributes to a broader, more robust and knowledgeable business structure,” says Freiberg.
Investments on the Norwegian continental shelf are expected to be around NOK 173 billion in 2020. The total investment base constitutes just under one fifth of the total real investment in Norway. In the following years, a slight decline in investment is expected. From a historical perspective, they are still expected to remain at a high level. Today, there are 85 fields in production, and significant investments are made in existing fields so that recovery rates increase and the service life is extended. In the longer term, the level of activity depends on continuously making new discoveries.