Russia is expected to lead the refining industry capacity growth in the Former Soviet Union (FSU) from active and upcoming (planned and announced) projects, accounting for 56% of the total capacity growth between 2019 and 2024, says GlobalData, a data and analytics company.
The company’s report, “Global Refining Industry Outlook to 2024 – Capacity and Capital Expenditure Outlook with Details of All Operating and Planned Refineries”, reveals that the total crude oil refining capacity in the FSU is expected to increase from 8.7 million barrels of oil per day (mmbd) in 2019 to 9.6 mmbd by 2024. Of this, 537 thousand barrels per day (mbd) capacity additions are likely from expansions of active refinery projects, while the remaining 332 mbd is from the new-build planned and announced projects.
Krishna Teja, Oil and Gas Analyst at GlobalData, comments, “Russia is set to lead refining capacity growth in the FSU with 485 mbd during the forecast period. Expansions of active refineries account for most of the capacity additions in the country with 463 mbd. The Moscow I refinery leads capacity expansions in the country with 106 mbd during the outlook period.”
GlobalData expects Georgia to be the second largest country in terms of crude oil refining capacity additions in the FSU. Two new-build refineries – Supsa and Kulevi– are expected to account for entire capacity additions in the country with 100 mbd and 84 mbd, respectively. The Supsa is an announced refinery, expected to start operations in 2022, while Kulevi is a planned refinery likely to come online in 2024.
Estonia is likely to be the third largest among the countries in the FSU, in terms of refining capacity additions over the outlook period 2020–2024. The country’s entire refining capacity additions of 60 mbd is likely to come from the planned Sillamae refinery. This topping-type refinery is expected to commence operations in 2021.