DNV GL, the world’s largest resource of independent energy experts and certification body, has provided accurate wind power forecasting services to SSE Renewables over the last 10 years. The assets are spread across 16 projects located onshore and offshore around the UK and have a total installed capacity of 2.8 GW. Many lessons have been learnt throughout the partnership which have not only benefited both SSE Renewables and DNV GL but have also accelerated decarbonisation by improving the commercial returns of renewable generation.
Lessons learnt include:
- The accuracy of production forecasts is ever improving, driven by better weather models and advancements in data science. Over the last 10 years, errors have been reduced by 30%.
- However, the most accurate forecast does not always bring best value. Changes in the trading mechanisms, such as the shift from dual to single imbalance price mechanism, require new ways of interpreting forecasts with a view to maximise revenue rather than simply accuracy.
- Additional information, such as uncertainty bands and power price forecasting, have become more important to understand the whole picture and deliver increased value to wind farm operators.
- Good communication between forecasting and asset management teams is essential. Understanding both recent and planned downtime events contributes significantly to ensure that the best forecasts are delivered. DNV GL have worked closely with the SSE team to ensure that our forecasts fit their specific needs.
Gordon Bell, Commercial Director of Energy Portfolio Management at SSE, says, “SSE has a vision to be a leading energy company in a net-zero world and renewable energy is as at the forefront of that ambition. Since the beginning of our partnership with DNV GL, we have found the service to be first-class, delivering accurate and reliable forecasting, which helps us to maximise the value of our onshore and offshore wind generation. We look forward to continuing to work with the team at DNV GL as we aim to treble our renewable energy output to 2030 and drive the UK’s transition to a net-zero future.”
Prajeev Rasiah, Executive Vice President North Europe, Middle East & Africa at DNV GL- Energy says, “We are pleased to be celebrating this milestone with SSE Renewables. Over the years we have tailored our forecasting service to accommodate the requests of this valued customer by setting up bespoke solutions to ensure meticulous forecasts are delivered reliably. Our partnership demonstrates the positive work being undertaken to continue to reduce carbon emissions by developing and operating commercially viable renewable energy systems.”
The co-operation between DNV GL and SSE Renewables started initially on a single offshore wind farm, Greater Gabbard, and has grown into a significant partnership based on trust through delivering precise forecasts reliably. Throughout the journey, DNV GL has developed bespoke models together with SSE Renewables to ensure highest quality service is provided to aid SSE Renewables trading team 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year.
Combining its experience in wind farm modelling and operational data analysis, together with data science and local knowledge of weather models, DNV GL brought together a highly skilled and diversely experienced team to produce highly accurate site-specific power forecasts for each of SSE Renewables wind farms in the UK.