Hurricane Energy plc, the UK based oil and gas company, has provided an update on production guidance from the Lancaster field, which takes into account additional production and pressure data gathered since the annual maintenance shutdown in July 2021.
On 30 April 2021, the company provided annual production guidance for the full year 2021 of 8,500 to 10,500 bopd. Hurricane Energy continues to forecast that average production for the year is expected to remain within this range. This annual guidance is based on an FPSO production uptime assumption of 90% and production from the P6 well alone on artificial lift via ESP. The production uptime assumption of 90% includes the impact of the annual maintenance shutdown, evenly spread across the year.
As previously announced, the Hurricane Energy has committed to providing half-year updates on production guidance. Management’s production guidance from the Lancaster field for the 6-month period 1 October 2021 to 31 March 2022 is 8,500 to 10,000 bopd, which is based on an improved FPSO production uptime assumption of 96.5% and production from the P6 well alone on artificial lift via ESP. The increase in the uptime assumption is a combination of there being no planned maintenance shutdowns anticipated in the period, reflecting the production uptime that has been seen on the FPSO to date.
The guidance for the period is slightly lower than the average for the full year 2021 due to the expected gradual production decline from the reservoir over time, partially offset by the higher FPSO uptime assumption.
Based on current trends, management estimates that wellhead flowing pressure in the Lancaster reservoir may reach the bubble point by the end of Q1 2022, consistent with the time range estimation previously announced on 25 May 2021. Whilst this has been factored into the guidance for the Period, there will remain a degree of uncertainty regarding the full impact of this, along with the risk that gas liberated from the reservoir could be produced which could result in production either being reduced or ceased altogether.
Antony Maris, CEO of Hurricane, comments, “The company has benefited from higher than expected oil prices and excellent performance to date of the FPSO. As a result of the combined efforts of the Hurricane and Bluewater teams, we anticipate being towards the upper end of our production guidance for 2021 and this is also reflected in our guidance for the next 6 months to 31 March 2022.”